A decade following the UK entered into a hasty public vote that polarised the nation and triggered turmoil, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two leading writers from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly contentious and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our region remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Intends to Stir Debate
The team have studied the political, financial and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a book, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the matter with a roadshow of lectures that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everyone, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose results have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extremely divided society where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the people who have won lack clarity exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is approaching, and a group named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and unionists downplay the possibility, resulting in ambiguity if and when there could be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has masked the lack of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to realise it has largely not occurred. A great deal has taken place in academia but very few government figures or activists are willing to participate with the fundamentals. To illustrate, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, none of the commentators supports unification or the status quo. Both authors two essays that aim for objectivity in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling economic and social figures, previous instances and structural examples.
Arguments range over identity markers, levies, healthcare systems, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The aim is to enlighten and encourage conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there has not yet occurred a discussion," said the writer. "Dialogue suggests an acceptance of the notion that there could be good arguments on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens report they support unification but reject increased taxation or implementing a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government must establish what the plan from nationalist groups is other than just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride considers a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it may take place unexpectedly. "You could have just a reckless or a ill-advised or a negligent government minister who says: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate arguments, he stated. "One side will succeed in this matter and the other side will in the end be defeated but all factions has possesses valuable insights to acquire from the alternative positions."
Request for Broader Debate
Westminster should join the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This involves Britain. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish matter."
